冻融影响下生态系统服务价值和生态风险的时空演变特征及关联性——以南羌塘盆地东区为例

Investigating the Spatio-temporal Evolution and Correlation of Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Risk amid Freeze-Thaw Cycles: A Case Study in the Eastern Region of South Qiangtang Basin

  • 摘要: 气候变化会显著影响冻土、冰川等对温度变化敏感的生态系统,造成区域生态系统服务价值和生态风险发生变化。为揭示气候变化对青藏高原典型冻土区域的生态系统服务价值的影响和可能造成的生态风险,基于2000—2020年土地利用数据,运用生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem Service Value, ESV)评估、生态风险指数(Ecological Risk Index, ERI)评估、双变量空间自相关、地理探测器等模型和方法,分析了南羌塘盆地东区ESV、ERI的时空演变、空间关联和空间分异特征。结果显示:(1)2000—2020年,南羌塘盆地东区ESV呈增长趋势,累计增长5.76%(276.98亿元),草地和水域贡献了超98.70%的ESV。研究区ESV总体呈中部高、四周低的分布格局,以中等价值区为主(面积约占研究区总面积的70.37%)。(2)研究区ERI整体呈上升趋势,总体呈东南低、西北高的分布格局,以极低风险区为主(面积约占研究区总面积的60.68%)。(3)研究区ESV和ERI具有空间负相关性(Moran's I<0),主要LISA聚类为低价值—低风险(面积约占研究区总面积的34.26%)。(4)区域ESV和ERI的空间分异受自然因子和经济因子共同作用影响,其中归一化植被指数为二者空间分异的主导因子(q值分别为0.55和0.19)。研究结果表明需根据研究区ESV和ERI的时空分布和变化特征,采取因地制宜的生态保护措施,推动区域生态环境的可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Climate change significantly impacts temperature-sensitive ecosystems like permafrost and glaciers, resulting in changes in regional ecosystem service values (ESV) and ecological risks index (ERI). To reveal the effects of climate change on ecosystem service values and potential ecological risks in typical permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, land use data from 2000 to 2020 is utilized. Methods including ESV evaluation, ERI assessment, bivariate spatial autocorrelation, and geographic detector analysis are employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution, spatial associations, and spatial differentiation characteristics of ESV and ERI in the eastern part of the Southern Qiangtang Basin. The findings show that: (1)From 2000 to 2020, ESV in the eastern region of the South Qiangtang Basin exhibited an upward trajectory, witnessing a cumulative increase of 5.76% (27.698 billion yuan). The primary contributors to ESV were grassland and water, contributing over 98.70% to the total va-lue. The overall distribution pattern of ESV manifested as high in the middle and low in the peripheral regions, with medium-value areas representing the central focus (the area was about 70.37% of the total area of the study area). (2) The regional trend of ERI displayed an overall increase, with a distribution pattern characterized by low values in the southeast and high values in the northwest, predominantly extremely low risk areas (the area was about 60.68% of the total area of the study area). (3) Regional ESV and ERI exhibited a negative spatial correlation (Moran's I < 0), with the primary LISA clustering identified as low value-low risk(the area was about 34.26% of the total area of the study area). (4) The spatial differentiation of regional ESV and ERI is influenced by both na-tural factors and economic factors, with NDVI emerging as the predominant factor driving their spatial divergence (q values of 0.55 and 0.19, respectively). The research results indicate that its necessary to adopt tailored ecological protection measures based on the spatiotemporal distribution and variation characteristics of ESV and ERI in the research area, in order to promote the sustainable development of the regional ecological environment.

     

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